Discussing what's right till there's nothing left.

Monday, February 1, 2010

Cancel Plans to Visit Tehran Anytime Soon...

If one scans the map at the left, and reads the linked news article, it becomes clear that military tensions are rising in the Middle East once more and Iran is the target. But was this planned all along or is it a result of recent provocations?

When President Obama was campaigning he said he would engage Iran in a dialog and try to resolve hostilities with diplomacy. And he certainly tried. But it may be that there was no other course of action than a military one all along.

Totalitarian governments concentrate their power by force and intimidation (I mean theirs not ours).

The recent election and subsequent protest in Iran highlighted how tenuous the Mullahs grip on power is. Yet the weak rulers refuse to negotiate with the west because any sign of weakness could increase political instability. After all, Iran is a theocracy and God surely isn't afraid of the west.

Meanwhile, as a result of 9/11 and fears about Iraq's dictatorship, the United States and allies have well over 100,000 troops to Iran's west in Iraq and are building to a similar sized force to Iran's East in Afghanistan and two aircraft carrier battle groups to the south in the Persian Gulf.

It seems too much of a historical anomaly to be coincidence. One force is due to begin drawing down just as the other is peaking. And at the same time batteries of defensive missiles are being deployed. triangulate and you can figure out the optimum time to strike.

And now we have the plummeting approval ratings of one Barack Hussein Obama to stir things up. Nothing improves a presidential approval in the short term than a war. Especially a war that by all accounts is justified.

So we have two weak governments trying to hold onto power, a massive military force encircling Iran, a nervous Israel ready to pull the trigger on their own military action, and moderate Arab states fearful of an overpowering Iran.

Think moving troops from Iraq to Iran would cause an up-tick in violence in Iraq? Think again. The Iranians have been responsible for more American and Iraqi deaths than anyone. They have been supplying IED's, arms and intel almost since the fall of Saddam Hussein. Iraq has been a proxy war for years. The same can be said of Afghanistan. Numerous reports have Iranian made IED's and arms in Afghanistan. Iran is also the puppet master behind Hamas and Hezbollah.

Iran uses their rhetoric against Israel to bolster popular support in the Middle East. But Israel isn't their goal. Regional domination means going for the oil and that puts Saudi Arabia, Iraq and the Gulf States in their cross hairs. The US doesn't just oppose nuclear arms in Iran's hands for purely defensive reasons. A nuclear armed Iran will be able to exert power over the entire region. With 70% of the world's oil reserves, and with radical environmentalists at home preventing oil drilling and nuclear power, the US economy would crumble.

Even a peacenik president knows he can't let that happen.

The stage is set for something very dramatic. Remember how the left claimed we "rushed to war" in Iraq? In reality it took nearly a year to position troops equipment and supplies. No such buildup is necessary if wee strike Iran during this year.

I'd cancel those vacation plans in Tehran till after the 2012 US presidential election.

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